Vermont Basketball season outlook

Is it really here? Can we finally get excited?

After nine months of waiting, Vermont basketball is back. 

Without the typical preseason to see the team and get comfortable figuring out player's roles and system tweaks, it is tougher than ever to know what the team is going to look like. After all this waiting, it is going to be like opening a present on Christmas morning. Sometimes it is the thing you have been wishing for all year and wanted most of all..... and sometimes it is a subscription to the jelly of the month club. I have never been more excited to finally see what kind of team Vermont is going to be. So lets dive in and put some of the puzzle pieces together. 

The lineup

Ben Shungu and Stef Smith are the two very clear and very predictable members of the starting lineup. No surprises here. I expect them both to be the tremendous players that they have been over the past few seasons. Smith is poised to have a monster season and lead this team in scoring. Hopefully Shungu has shaken off the injury limitations that he had to play through last season. He was incredibly effective at less than 100% and I am excited to see what he can do at full strength. I listened to the Catamount insider podcast this week and Becker provided some clarity about how the rest of the rotation is starting to take shape. He spoke very highly about Justin Mazzulla and praised him as the "alpha" on the team. A guy who will do it all, set the tone, and bring energy and toughness. Sounds like he is going to start at the three. I am excited about what Mazzulla will bring to the program this year and think he is ready to make a big impact on both ends of the floor. Becker was very high on the guard group as a whole saying that "all six guys could start". Aaron Deloney, Robin Duncan, and Bailey Patella will all have big roles as well. With the back to back schedule, the coaching staff is going to be looking to manage minutes even more carefully. Eric Beckett put in big time work in the offseason will also have a chance to contribute. As you might expect with the abnormal preseason, it sounds like there have been various injuries that have hampered Vermont's ability to play with lineups and have the whole team available at the same time. Becker specifically mentioned that Patella and Ryan Davis had been dealing with various injuries. That brings us to how the frontcourt is going to play out. This is the area with the most question marks and the play of the frontcourt will be the deciding factor in Vermont's success this season. Davis, if healthy, will be a cornerstone of the lineup and a big part of their offense. Injuries have really hampered his consistency and it is unfortunate to hear he hasn't quite shaken the injury bug. The positive news is it sounds like Tomas Murphy has looked excellent thus far and Becker went so far as to say "maybe the best big man they have had during his tenure". Wow. It sounds like this praise is due to his array of post moves and nice touch around the rim. Now that may be some coach speak, but if you have watched any of Murphy's highlights form his Northeastern days, he has incredible fundamentals, footwork, and feel around the rim. His success this season is going to hinge on his ability to be equally as effective on the defensive end. As every Vermont fan knows, no defense, no court time. It sounds like at full health, Becker would like to see if Vermont could roll out a lineup with Murphy and Davis rounding out the starting five. Due to injuries that has not happened yet so to begin the season I think Isaiah Powell will be a big part of the rotation and will get the start if Davis can't go. 

Filling in the frontcourt rotation

This is the biggest question mark for the Cats this season as I mentioned above. If they do indeed have injuries or run into foul trouble, who gets the minutes? Duncan Demuth really struggled in his first year as a Catamount but certainly has the talent to be a contributor. After that everything is up in the air. Georges Lefebvre has loads of talent and it is more a matter of when, rather than if, he will be able to contribute. This season really puts freshman behind the eight ball and it remains to be seen how quickly he will be able to make the adjustment to the college game. Nick Fiorillo has been getting a lot of buzz this offseason and Becker called him their "best frontcourt shooter". He will certainly have to improve in other areas and it might be alot to ask for him to be able to step in this year, but it looks as though he will absolutely be a contributor during his Catamount career. This rotation will likely be a source of game to game experimentation and the minutes distribution will be very matchup dependent. 

Style of play

After four years of running their offense through Anthony Lamb, this guard oriented team will likely play faster and look to get out in transition. Becker wants to take advantage of the size of Mazzulla, Duncan, and Patella to play smaller lineups where Vermont can pressure the ball and try to take advantage of their depth to run teams down. It will be very different than what Vermont teams have looked like in recent years as Vermont has the size, athleticism, and depth at the guard position to get up and down the court. That is not say that they won't still look for the best shot or grind it out on defense. I do think that where they will miss Everett Duncan and Lamb the most is on the defensive end. Offense is "easier" to replace than the defensive presence and experience those two players brought every game. This team might give up a few more points per game but will likely try to make up for it by forcing a few more turnovers. 

Key Questions

Where will the three point shooting come from?

Everett and Lamb accounted for 40% of both Vermont's makes and attempts from three last season. That is a big number. That is a lot to replace within the context of the offense. Stef will certainly fill in but he was already a huge part of the Cats success from three and already owns a high percentage of their perimeter offense. If you take out Lamb, Everett, and Stef from the three point statistics, the rest of the team shot 27% from three last season. Not great. Someone is going to have to make a big leap in their three point efficiency in order to make Vermont more than one dimensional from the perimeter. Mazzulla is a career 27% shooter from three and it is not a big part of his game. Deloney is the most likely candidate to make a big improvement as he is a much better shooter than he showed last season. I do however see him as very streaky and again that potentially leaves Stef as the only guy who is a "must guard" on the perimeter. Vermont has plenty of capable shooters that can keep teams honest but I could see teams daring guys to shoot from the perimeter, packing it in to stop penetration, and living with the results. This is where you might see Becker try to use Fiorillo in short bursts to try and stretch the defense. 

Can they really play an uptempo style?

Vermont always ranks in the back half of the pack in terms of tempo each year. Part of this is due to the defensive system that they run which forces other teams to slow their tempo as well. However, the Cats have always been very comfortable in their half court sets and always defer until they get the best shot possible. It would be a major departure from the Vermont teams of the past to try and push the tempo. I think this team has the makeup to do it and it will be interesting to see if they can execute a new vision. 

How will the mental aspect of the game play out?

I believe Vermont's greatest advantage over the years has been their mental toughness. The game preparation, goal setting, and winning culture has carried them through challenges every season. I am not questioning the players on this team's ability to continue the high level of mental focus displayed year in and year out. However, this is an unprecedented time in history and it would naive to think that all of the stress can be blocked out. This pandemic has affected everyone, no matter how strong their resolve. No fans, constant anxiety about will the games happen or not, family health and safety, etc. There is so much uncertainty and there is no way that it doesn't make its way on the court at points throughout the year. 

So what will the season look like?

How will they finish?

Vermont got a very good schedule draw as they will have 10 home games and 8 road games. They also got  Albany and Stony Brook at home. So far it looks as though homecourt advantage is a little less important than in past years but a slight advantage still exists. I think the back to back games will make it hard to have a 1-2 loss season that has been the norm over the past four years. I think Vermont will shake off the rust and finish at the top of the league. It will likely come down to the final series of the season at UMBC but I think Vermont finishes in first place at 13-5. The Cats have the talent and depth to continue to perform as one of the best mid-majors in the country. I think there will be some rust early on, but as long as the season plays out with a relatively predictable rhythm and players can stay healthy, Vermont will be playing at a high level by the end of the season.

Never been more excited for some basketball.