America East Conference preview

Is it finally time for some basketball?

With the conference schedule set to begin this weekend, it is time to start talking basketball again. As with everything in 2020, it is hard to look ahead very far and even harder to know what the future will bring. This conference season will be unlike any other and as such will be equally as unpredictable. In a typical season every team has prepared for the season in roughly the same way. Preseason, scrimmages, exhibitions, and a non-conference schedule year in and year out. That makes predictions easier as you can for all intents and purposes compare apples to apples. This year all of that gets thrown out the window and now it is time to try and sift through the rubble. The list of factors that will make this college basketball season just as unpredictable as everything else this year would be enough to fill the pages of a book. Some are simple and don't need long explanations. Teams have had different amounts of practice time, different practice protocols, different amounts of games played, roster changes, etc. These are all pretty straight forward and will undoubtedly affect teams significantly. There are a few I would like to dive into in more detail. First off, the schedule. With a two game, home and home schedule structure, there was no way to make it "fair". Some teams have more home games than others. Not every team has to travel to every school. Also, playing back to back games is a whole different animal than rest days in between. All of this unbalance is going to lead to some wacky results. If a team is dealing with injuries or ineffective play in December, there is no return game late in the season to avenge an earlier loss. This season it is going to matter even more when you play which team. Also if you have followed back to back series so far this season it has led to some wild swings in results. Team A dominates night one, only to get blown out night two. It is going to lead to some interesting basketball and will absolutely test every teams resolve. And I don't even need to mention postponements, pauses, and further COVID disruptions that are bound to occur. I probably forgot about five other points I was going to make but that will have to do as I too have to try to get back into the swing of things. I am going to group the teams rather than try and predict an actual record because I feel like that is going to be more applicable for all the reasons mentioned above.  

The Contenders:

UMBC

UMBC has been a bright spot for the America East so far as they have gone 4-1 in the non-conference. They were picked to finish second way back when the poll came out and I think they have jumped Vermont as the favorite as of this moment. The Retrievers are a veteran team with guys who have won consistently and competed at a high level. They bring back much of last years team led by RJ Eytle-Rock and Brandon Horvath. The Retrievers have executed at both ends of the floor to begin this season. A healthy Daniel Akin gives them a big presence down low and he and Dimitri Spasojevic complement each other well. The biggest addition for UMBC is getting back a healthy Darnell Rogers who packs a lot of punch into his 5-2 frame. Throw in L.J Owens and Keonte Kennedey and you have a rotation that is strong at every position and versatile. The only real fly in the ointment is they got the short end of the scheduling stick. They have 10 road games and those road games are against the upper tier of the AE. They do host Vermont to close out the conference schedule at the end of February that will most likely have implications regarding the regular season title (I mean UMBC/Vermont has quickly become one of the best mid-major rivalries, love it).

Vermont

What kind of team will Vermont be this season? They were already in for a big transition losing Anthony Lamb and Everett Duncan. Those two were solid as a rock over their careers and replacing them goes beyond the box score. The offseason has included two pauses for COVID, a cancelled non-conference schedule, and the Cats lost Bernie Andre before he ever stepped foot on the court. All of this adds up to the most uncertainty going into a Vermont season in quite a while. Stef Smith is poised to take the reins and lead the Cats. With Ben Shungu, Robin Duncan, Aaron Deloney and newcomer Justin Mazzulla, Vermont has depth and size at the guard position. Ryan Davis made a big jump last season but he will be counted on to climb even higher. After that Vermont has a lot of talent but a lot of questions marks as well. Will Duncan Demuth produce with year under his belt? Can Isaiah Powell find some consistency? How quickly will newcomers Tomas Murphy and Georges Lefebrve get up to speed? Vermont runs a complicated system and without a full offseason, will the Cats be able to play with the unity and chemistry that makes them so tough? I will dive more into the nitty gritty in my Vermont specific preview before their first game on Monday. 

The challengers:

Albany

For two years now the Great Danes have struggled mightily to live up to the standards that they have set with their years of success. They have the talent to compete with anyone in the league but have been missing that spark that they have had on their championship caliber teams. Too many mistakes and lackluster play. If this group can shake off the inconsistency they have a chance to push their way back to the top. They along with Vermont, Maine, and NJIT will enter conference play without any games under their belt. That could be a challenge for Will Brown as he often needs time to incorporate a slew of newcomers before settling on a rotation. Albany will attempt to incorporate several transfers and freshman into the mix to surround their returning core. Cameron Healy is one of the best players in the conference and along with Anthony Rizzuto, gives the Great Danes two of the best long range snipers in the league. Trey Hutcheson will try to build on a strong freshman season and Adam Lulka will look to stay healthy and give the Danes the tough physical presence they need. 

Hartford:

Oh what could have been. The Hawks were days away from playing in their first title game since 2008 before the cancellation. Is that unfinished business going to give the Hawks an extra boost as they enter this season? They will have to replace Malik Ellison which is no easy task. Moses Flowers has exploded to start the year and has become the Hawks go to player. Traci Carter and Hunter Marks return to build on last season. The big newcomer for the Hawks is Marist transfer Austin Williams who has started all five games this season for Hartford. The big questions for Hartford are the same as they have been every year under John Gallagher. Do they have enough of a presence down low to compete on the boards and can they consistently make shots. Time will tell. 

New Hampshire:

New Hampshire has quietly built themselves into a competitive team again. They play hard and tough on defense which keeps them in a lot of games. Their entire team is back and that continuity is going to be an advantage this season. Nick Guadarrama (the guy you want on your team but really bugs you as an opposing fan) is an all league caliber player and has improved every season. The Wildcats will get a boost with the blanket transfer wavier that was passed today as I believe they will now have Houston Baptist transfer Qon Murphy available to give them more depth at the guard position. New Hampshire is another team that that needs to find consistent shooting from the outside in order to make the leap.

UMass Lowell

Lowell has been knocking at the door since they come into the league. They play an exciting fast paced style of play that really stretches opposing defenses. Their offensive efficiency in a league that prides itself on defense has made for some very exciting games. Unfortunately the defense has not yet caught up to their offense leaving them on the outside looking in. Has this wacky year left the door open a crack? Lowell owns the most impressive AE win of the non-conference as they knocked off a strong San Francisco squad to open the season. The River Hawks have a player of the year candidate in Obadiah Noel and Wagner transfer Darion Jordan-Thomas has provided a nice spark in his first season with the team. We wont have to wait long to find out where the Riverhawks stand as Lowell host Vermont next Monday and Tuesday for what should be a very telling series for both teams.  

The question marks:

Stony Brook

The Seawolves had the strangest offseason of any team losing all five starters to transfers. The cupboard was bare and it remains to be seen exactly how well Geno Ford and his staff were able to fill it back up. Transfers Frankie Policelli, Tyeki Greene, and Jaden Sayles have led the charge thus far with JUCO product Juan Felix Rodriguez at the controls. Lone returner Mo Gueye has provided a spark as well as he looks to build off and up and down season. I expect them to be very competitive and push the teams at the top. This group could surprise some teams and may very well play the spoiler. 

NJIT

The conference newcomers were suppose to open conference play last weekend but that series with New Hampshire was postponed due to COVID. They are still waiting to play their first game as a member of the America East. They are an exciting addition to the conference and have all the pieces to immediately duke it out in the middle of the pack. Zach Cooks will likely compete for the scoring title and with fellow senior San Antonio Brinson,  they form a formidable 1-2 punch. Along with rising junior Souleymane Diakite the Highlanders are ready to bring their defensive minded team in to the America East.  

The rest:

Binghamton & Maine

These two teams are once again destined to fight it out at the bottom of the standings. Each program has struggled to find consistency and keep their good players in the program. Whether it be transfers, injuries, or just plain bad luck, these two programs have a ways to go before they are ready to put a competitive team out on the court night in and night out.

So that is where it stands as of today. Like everything else this year, things are subject to change, but at least very soon conference basketball will be back (hopefully). Stay Safe.