Saturday, December 30, 2017

Anthony Lamb fractures his foot

Big news first reported by the Burlington Free Press.

Vermont star Anthony Lamb fractured his foot during practice on Thursday and the initial timetable is 8 weeks. This is the biggest news in the America East right now. Lamb was a contender for conference player of the year and was poised to lead Vermont to another championship. This turns the conference upside down and puts Vermont in a very difficult position. In the article Becker mentioned that the coaching staff was analyzing all of their options. After the Skyler Nash injury the staff was considering sacrificing a redshirt and now it is almost a certainty that someone is going to start playing. Bailey Patella's name was kicked around after Nash's injury and now Ra Kpedi's name is being thrown into the mix. It will be interesting to see what the staff does. The frontcourt is now dangerously thin which would make you think they might activate Kpedi, but it is going to depend on who they think is ready to contribute. Nate Rohrer becomes a very important player off the bench. Two years ago he played some strong minutes backing up a thin froncourt so he has been in this situation before.  As far as the effect on the court Vermont is going to have to morph into a different team. They are going to end up playing small and spreading the floor more often. The offense is going to be even more predicated on dribble penetration and Trae Bell-Haynes is going to shoulder even more of a load. Where this is going to really hurt is on the defensive end. Vermont is already struggling with rim protection and they are now losing their best rim protector. I could see them trying a little more zone and throwing more double teams in the post. The conference outlook becomes very different as well. Albany now has to be the favorite to build on their hot start. I say this because their frontcourt has been incredibly good to being this season and losing Lamb is going to affect that particular matchup the most. It will obviously change all of the games from this point on, but the effect will be felt the most in those Albany games. Vermont is still a very good team without Lamb and will battle every night. For any team it is very hard to lose your best player and just continue humming along. It is time for the other guys to step up. This team is mentally tough and will continue to believe and strive for a championship. The game against Harvard will a great barometer for where this team will be during conference play. A tough road game against a team who has also been without their leading scorer. The Cats have a few days to come together as a team and make the necessary adjustments to continue to win games in Lamb's absence.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

Quinnipiac at Vermont 12/21/17

Vermont 80 Quinnipiac 73

Vermont closed out 2017 with a win against Quinnipiac. The Cats came out with a lot of fire on defense and played a strong first half. The second half was lackluster to say the least as their defense struggles once again let them down. It was disappointing to see such a drop off from the first half. It would have been nice to see Vermont make some strides on the defensive end before this long layoff. The Cats are really struggling to defend the three as they allowed Quinnipiac to make 13 in this game. The rotations are not just slow, there is often a lot of confusion. Quinnipiac was not a very strong team and to give up 73 points is disconcerting. Vermont has a lot of work to do over the holiday break. On the positive side their offense keeps humming right along. Anthony Lamb led the Cats once again with 20 points and 6 rebounds. He scored in a variety of ways and looks better and better on the offensive end. He has to cut down on the mental lapses and silly fouls to take the next step in his game. Trae Bell-Haynes was great in this game. He finished at the rim in all sorts of different ways and really stuffed the stat sheet. Bell-Haynes finished with 16 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. He must continue to be a strong leader on this team as they prepare for the conference schedule. Ernie and Everett Duncan chipped in with 11 and 10 points respectively. Ernie really took the ball to the hole in this game which is a trend I can really get behind. It was nice to see Cam Ward play good minutes and hit a couple big shots. I though Samuel Dingba had his best minutes of the season. He got some good rebounds and played hard. Vermont had a tremendous 2017 and it is kind of sad to see it go. A year full of good basketball and exciting match-ups. I cant wait to see what 2018 brings. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Vermont vs St. Bonaventure 12/16/17

St. Bonaventure 81 Vermont 79

Matt Mobley hit a three pointer at the buzzer to sink the Catamounts in Rochester. Payton Henson's tip with five seconds left had given Vermont the lead before Mobley found space on the wing for the dagger. Anthony Lamb was a beast in his homecoming game pouring in 27 points and pulling down 8 rebounds. He has been getting to the line at a high rate and knocking them down when he gets there. He is poised for a tremendous rest of the season. Lamb is already a great player but I see him taking it to another level going forward. Vermont played well on offense and looked really good from the three point line. Everett Duncan looks better and better every game as he chipped in 11 points. Trae Bell-Haynes hit some tough shots down the stretch and finished with 13 points. Again it was the defense that let the Cats down. St. Bonaventure shot 60 percent from the field including 8/12 (66.7%) from three. Such uncharacteristic struggles for the Vermont defense. The Mobley shot to win it was made worse by the fact that it was his only made shot of the game. Vermont's defense had successfully held St. Bonaventure's leading scorer scoreless for 99.9% of the game. That loss hurts. Such a roller coaster of emotions in a great college basketball game, and Vermont just couldn't pull it off. The preseason hype was all about Vermont taking the next step and reaching the upper echelon of mid-major basketball. Maybe that hype was too much in the end as Vermont is sill a very good mid-major basketball team who hasn't quite made the leap. They whiffed on all of their chances for a signature road win which is how most of their non-conference schedules have gone. They demonstrated how much closer they are to reaching that next level but still have some work to do. This is certainly frustrating and a tad disappointing but they are exactly where they were at last season. I love statistics and I am going to delve into a deeper analysis of the Vermont season up until this point. I use the Ken Pomeroy rankings for a lot of my research because it is really good when used to compare teams for predictive purposes. All of his formulas are adjusted for strength of opponent and home/away/neutral so it offers an even playing field to see how teams stack up. I also have been using hoop-math.com to delve into some of the advanced statistics. All of the following numbers will be from those websites. Vermont has played the 21st toughest schedule according to kenpom. A further validation of the quality of opponent Vermont has had thus far. Vermont's current kenpom ranking is 70. They finished last year at 63 to give you a comparison. Their record broken down by opponents kenpom ranking are as follows :

                                             1-100 (1-3)
                                         101-200 (3-2)
                                               200+ (2-0)

Throw in their non D1 win and you get their current 7-5 record. Buckell is one of those second tier losses and they are currently at 101, right on the border. The point here is that Vermont is right there against teams who are also in the upper tier. The highest ranked team they play the rest of this season is Albany and they are currently at 118. All of their other opponents are ranked below 150. This Vermont team is in the exact same position it was last season at this point. The only different the rest of the way is that Albany is better than they were a season ago. Does this mean they will go undefeated again? It is possible but unlikely. The defense is not quite where it was last season and that needs to improve in order for Vermont to make another big run. With a look behind the numbers there are two areas where Vermont is struggling on defense, at the rim and in transition. Opponents are getting to the rim about 10% more often and when they get their they are shooting it at a higher percentage. This is due to Vermont blocking less shots this season. Opposing teams are shooting 74% on unblocked shots at the rim which is a 12% increase on the same shots last season. This is the area where they miss Dre Wills, Kurt Steidl, and Darren Payen. Vermont is going to have to tighten that up by cutting off driving lanes to the rim due to the lack of consistent rim protectors outside of Lamb. Most of the other defensive numbers are the same. The most glaring weakness right now is Vermont's difficulties getting back in transition. Opposing teams are destroying the Cats in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Off a rebound Teams are shooting 31% better on threes and 21% better on jumpers. That is an astronomical increase. It happened several times in the game today and the game winning shot was a quick run up the floor after a made basket. The three from the wing in transition has absolutely killed Vermont this season. They are also committing more live ball turnovers this season which is leading to a 30% increase in shooting percentage at the rim in transition. Not all turnovers are created equal and even though Vermont has reduced their overall turnovers, more of them are leading to runouts. Opposing teams are getting the ball up the court fast and shooting a higher percentage as compared to last season. Now despite all of these bad numbers Vermont has still had chances to win in the last thirty seconds in 4 out of their 5 losses. Vermont has one game between now and January and if they can get together and clean up these defensive lapses they are poised to make another big run this season. This Vermont team is a very good team desite the non-conference disappointments and ready to start building momentum.

Monday, December 11, 2017

Siena at Vermont 12/11/17

Vermont 81 Siena 57

Home sweet home.

On Tom Brennan court night Vermont righted the ship and routed Siena. That is 8 straight wins in the series. The Cats had six players in double figures and were led by Drew Urquhart. Drew U continues to impress this season finishing with 13 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He knocked down another three and is shooting with confidence. Drew U kind of led the pack of "the other guys" in this game. Everett Duncan shot 4-4 from three for 12 points and pulled down another 5 rebounds. He also played a team high 27 minutes and is really settling nicely into his role. Stef Smith also chipped in 12 points while dishing out 5 assists. Smith stayed hot from three and is staring to find more consistency. Nate Rohrer came in and played strong minutes reminding Cats fans what a luxury it is to have a player like him at the end of the bench. His basketball sense is great and he finds ways to make positive plays. Trae Bell-Haynes returned from his one game absence and really stuffed the stat sheet. Bell-Haynes finished with 10 points, 4 assists, and a team high 7 rebounds. Vermont suffered another injury scare when Ernie Duncan went down under the hoop with what looked like a knee injury. He did return to the game later and looked to be okay. Hopefully it is nothing and he will be ready for Saturday's game. The highlight of the night had to be Bell-Haynes putting the ball through a defender's legs as he was breaking the press. I am hoping for a nice camera angle on the highlights. Vermont's defense looked better and they had more energy on the court. The crowd was great tonight and the court dedication ceremony was a great moment. Vermont also dished out 19 assists on 26 made field goals to get back to their style of basketball.  A great win and now there are only two games over a 3 week period after the gauntlet to start the year. That should give the road weary Cats a nice break to get rested, healthy, and work out the kinks as they get ready for conference play. The matchup with St. Bonaventure on Saturday is another difficult game as Vermont continues to play one of the toughest schedules in the country. It should be a fun game at a neutral site in Rochester, NY and a homecoming game for Anthony Lamb.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

Vermont at Northeastern 12/9/17

Northeastern 71 Vermont 67

The road weary Cats dropped their third straight game to a red hot Northeastern team. Vermont was playing without Trae Bell-Haynes and it showed. Bell-Haynes is the key cog in so much of what the Cats do offensively and defensively. As a result Vermont turned the ball over repeatedly and Northeastern scored 21 points off of those mistakes. Vermont's offense was completely one dimensional without Bell-Haynes. His ability to get by defenders and either score or kick out is difficult to replace. That one dimension was strong in this game as Anthony Lamb set a new career high with 32 points, but it was not enough. Lamb was a perfect 15-15 from the line and tried to will the Cats back into game. In both this game and the Bucknell game they had a possession to tie the game or take the lead late and could not convert. Earlier in the year Vermont was converting in those situations so I guess this is a swift correction. The defense was only marginally better and the struggles are similar to the struggles Vermont experienced 2 seasons ago (which incidentally they also played without Dre Wills. You think he was a special kind of defensive force?). During that season teams would work the ball around with quick passes and eventually, late in the shot clock, knock down an open three. That has happened to Vermont three games in a row and is definitely a concerning trend. The Cats also force very few turnovers and as a result they rely on forcing teams to shoot a poor percentage for their defense to be effective. They have to tighten up their rotations or this trend is going to continue. There is no time to hang their heads with a quick turnaround for the game on Monday night. It is court dedication night as Tom Brennan gets recognized for his tremendous contributions to the Vermont program. It is probably going to be a sellout and this losing streak adds another layer to what was already going to be a big game. If Bell-Haynes is forced to miss another game the Cats are going to be in trouble. It is hard to replace all of what Bell-Haynes does for Vermont. Siena has become an intense rivalry game and they play the type of defense that forces lots of turnovers. It is going to be another difficult game and Vermont will need to play significantly better if they want to end the losing streak.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Vermont at Marquette 12/5/17

Marquette 91 Vermont 81

Vermont ran into a hot shooting Markus Howard and fell to Marquette in the road. Howard was unbelievable in this one. He absolutely could not be stopped and the rest of his Golden Eagle teammates joined in the fun as Marquette shot 57% from the field. The Golden Eagles don't play much defense but they will win some games in the Big East this year by virtue of an incredibly efficient offense. Anytime an underdog is trying to pull an upset, it needs to be a combination of the underdog being hot and the favorite playing a little off. Both teams were hot in this one and as result Vermont didn't have enough to get the victory. Much will be written about the trouble Vermont is having at the defensive end but I am not ready to panic about the Cats defense. They played two very tough, offensively efficient opponents on the road.  There are certainly some things to tighten up but I think some of the last two games had to do with very strong offensive performances by the Vermont opponents. This game has all the feelings of the Butler game last season that propelled Vermont to their win streak. I am not saying that they won't lose again this season, but I believe that this game can be a sign of how close they are but serve as a reminder of the work they have left to do. How about Stef Smith? Holy mackerel he single-handedly kept Vermont in the game. After struggling through the last few games Smith came out firing in this one and finished with a career high 20 points on 6/6 shooting from three. What a great game to build on and a tremendous confidence booster. Smith is a very gifted player and it looks like he is starting to get a feel for the college game. He certainly looks right on track to be a consistent contributor come conference schedule time. That will be a huge boost to add an instant offense piece off the bench. The bench was good in general tonight as Drew Urquhart had another strong game and Cam Ward knocked down some nice shots in his homecoming game. Anthony Lamb picked up some and fouls early and looked out of sorts for the rest of the game. He needs to get off to good starts as how he begins the game seems to dictate how the rest of the game will go. I was excited that Trae Bell-Haynes finally looked healthy and then he fell hard and hit his head on the floor at the end of the game. Hopefully he is ready to go because now comes the crucial part of taking away the "positives" from these losses. The game at Northeastern becomes a "must win" game now. The Cats are tired and weary from the road but they cannot take this next game lightly. Ideally they will come out and take it to Northeastern as they should be highly motivated to move on from this tough stretch. It is time to take the hard lessons and apply them to their next opponent so Vermont can get back on the winning track.

P.S. I actually work with a Marquette fan and we made a small "wear the opposing team's t-shirt" bet on this game, so tomorrow I will unfortunately be wearing the blue and gold all day. Ouch.

Saturday, December 2, 2017

Vermont at Bucknell 12/2/17

Bucknell 81 Vermont 77

Vermont battled hard but fell to Bucknell to snap their 6 game win streak. In a matchup between two conference preseason number ones, the game did not disappoint. It was a back and forth affair with neither team able to take control. It was a fun game to watch with great basketball players on both sides. Bucknell caught fire from three down the stretch and made their free throws to ice the game. Once again the comeback Cats somehow climbed back into the game from a large deficit late. Payton Henson had a nice look from three that would have put Vermont up by one with 30 seconds left but couldn't get it to fall. I guess eventually Vermont had to miss one of those big late game shots they have made a living on this season. The most surprising thing from this game was how the Bison defense made Vermont into a one on one offensive team. The Cats' assist/turnover ratio was an abysmal 5/11. Five assists on 26 made field goals. That is atrocious and wildly uncharacteristic for this team. I would imagine that is going to be a big point of emphasis before Tuesday's showdown with Marquette. Trae Bell-Haynes is definitely playing through a nagging injury as he just does not have the same burst out on the court. The result is that he is having an incredibly hard time finishing at the rim. Vermont played well overall in this one, Bucknell just played better. Winning on the road is a tough thing to do and while no one likes to lose I am of the mind that when a team inevitably loses it can be a learning experience and a time to refocus, especially during the non conference schedule. I thought some of the biggest moments that helped Vermont last year were in losses. Losing to Houston and Northeastern were two losses last year that because of the way they lost, I felt had a very positive impact on Vermont's mentality as a team. It is kind of cheesy but you don't learn how to win until you learn how to lose. When you win as many close games and comeback games as the Cats have over the past few years, every end game situation gives you fuel for that situation in the future. Vermont will be able to tighten up some of the things that cost them this game and be even better prepared for the next time they are in a dog fight. The most immediate concern is that the Cats let this game get away from them due to defending the three poorly down the stretch. Their next game is against Marquette, a team who loves the three about as much as any team in the country. No time to hang their heads, the three point defense will need to be tightened up immediately. Marquette is also an offensive minded team who spread the floor with shooters at every position. Another tough test for Vermont.

P.S. I get that one of the announcers was a fan who won a prize but wow, that was a tough broadcast to listen to. I am all for rooting for your team but a little bit of moderation goes a long way.