Vermont season preview 25-26

Time to dive into some thoughts about the season with college basketball returning tomorrow. Let's get the first part out of the way. The exhibition games were tough games that shed some light on some concerns for Vermont to start the season. With the offensive struggles from last season, the coaching staff has made a shift in their approach and are relying on their track record of teaching defensive principles. With that much flux in personnel and skill set there are going to be some challenges to the beginning of the season, particularly with injury concerns once again rearing their ugly head. This season more than ever, making predictions about performance across college basketball is going to be a challenge early in the season. Lets dive in to some thoughts.

Making predictions

One of my typical processes when getting ready for the college basketball season is to check out the computer predictions on kenpom, t-rank, evanmiya, etc. This year that is honestly pointless for most mid major teams. There are errors all over and with so many teams completely overhauling rosters, those predictive systems are out of whack for the lower tier conferences like the America East. Honestly neither humans nor computers have much of an idea how these teams will perform. As a result, this year I am not going to make a specific prediction on record and more talk about factors that will influence the outcomes of the season. This will result in some absolutely crazy early season results with what I think will be a large performance variance from game to game. I know the saying is always that conference play is what really matters in the one bid leagues, but this year I think that is more present than ever. Teams performance in the non conference and performance in conference are going to likely seem unrelated. 

Team rosters

Just to illustrate that point a bit further, it is hard to know who is even going to be playing for the the teams in the America East. Lets take UMass Lowell as a case study. The River Hawks have been a top tier program for quite a long time but return ZERO of everything. Zero minutes played. How can anyone make a realistic prediction about that team? There are many teams in a very similar situation. The only teams that can say they are returning significant pieces are Vermont and UMBC. Time will tell.

Shooting

Now I can understand how the first two exhibition games may not have highlighted all of the best qualities of the Cats, but they have much, much more shooting than last season. Last year once TJ Long was basically out for the season (so minus his career makes), there were roughly 272 made threes in college on the roster. That is abominably low and it played out that way during the season. Spacing was tough and shots were hard to come by. This season to start with (fully healthy of course), there are 716 made threes in college on the roster. So regardless of whatever initial struggles are ahead, there should be significantly more spacing and shot making ability on this years roster. 

The TJ and TJ show

One thing that was clear during the exhibitions is both TJs are going to give it all they have. Both in their final season and both with something to prove. The revenge tour is going to be a fun ride. TJ Long looks to overcome health challenges that stole his season away and TJ Hurley wants to erase the memory of the America East semifinal. They are as dynamic of a scoring backcourt as there is in mid major basketball. I am crossing every finger, knocking on every piece of wood, praying to every god, for good health for the two of them this season. Watching them out there together is going to be so fun. They give the Cats incredible shot making potential and multiple players to go to when they need a bucket. 

Defense

Through the exhibitions, the defense has been the most glaring difference between this years team and Becker teams of the past. I do think there is some room for hope long term. Most of the errors were with understanding coverages and being out of position. Those are things that can be corrected with time and practice. Long and Hurley are both good defenders with positional size and David Simon has some potential as a rim protector from an off ball position. Without Gus Yalden they are thin in the post, but his return could give them some more physicality.  The rest of the lineup is in a "play defense or don't play" scenario and once there is a consistent rotation of guys that understand the system the defense will improve. Not to the level of the past few seasons, but likely to a serviceable level. 

Betting on talent

This group does involve some big swings on unproven players. Gus Yalden, David Simon, and Lucas Mari are all players that have sky high ceilings but are looking for an opportunity to prove themselves. Yalden's absence with no information is concerning, but when he gets to the court, he will be a big time swing player for the Cats. His ability as a screener and passer out of the high post is what will ultimately unlock this offense. That is still all speculation as he has not had a featured role yet at the college level. Simon is in a similar boat and he did have stretches across the two exhibitions where he flashed the potential. With him the key will be if can he consistently be engaged on both ends of the floor. 

Lucas Mari

Understandably, Mari was the most interesting addition in the offseason and fans have been excited to see the on court performance. After the two games there was a lot of confusion on his lack of impact. It bears repeating that he missed the entire summer program, arrived two months ago with a significant language barrier, and add in the massive adjustment to the college game, which for any young player can be challenging, and you have a recipe for difficulty. Another factor is he is a pass first player whose impact relies significantly on chemistry and comfort within a system. Robin Duncan is a good comparison in the sense that his shooting ability is much further behind his other skills. I watched several international games and he is a guy that impacts the game by trusting his teammates and creating plays off the dribble. Missing that time over the summer to get up to speed on the system is a huge obstacle. Not to mention that defense, unrelated to his offense impact, was going to be a big learning curve. I still think with a few more months the talent will show through but despite his international success, he is still an unproven player at the college level. 

Defining roles

I know I am a broken record and I talk about this every year at the beginning of the season but it is that important, especially with the significant roster turnover. It was clear in the second half of Saint Anselm that when Becker shortened the rotation and there were more defined roles, the overall play improved. Like I mentioned at the begin of the post, everything is in flux on every team. There is going to be a never ending process of finding the pieces that fit. For Vermont, the frontcourt minutes and the point guard role and going to be the most interesting playing time battles throughout the season. 

What does it mean?

I still think that Vermont will be fighting for the top spot in the America East come March. Time and time again, the Cats figure it out, and the coaching staff finds the right roles for the right players. Why bet against it now? Even last year with a rag tag, never fully healthy roster, they gutted it out and put themselves in a position to win. The rest of the America East is dealing with similar challenges and I will take the team that has been able to consistently create an all in, winning culture. 

So there you have it. A few thoughts on the upcoming season and my favorite time of year just around the corner. I started this blog 12 years ago and it has grown into something I never thought it would. That is thanks to you readers. I will never be able to thank you enough. With graduate school, my children's sports schedules, and potential career transitions on the horizon, I am not sure how many more seasons I have in me, but at the very least I am ready for this upcoming season. I will be turning off the comment section as the season gets going becasue I struggle to read and respond and it weighs on my mind to leave questions unanswered. I truly apologize if that is going to affect your experience as a reader but it is the only way I can continue to manage the time in my schedule for all of the things life is throwing my way. I can't wait for the season to get going!! See you at Patrick!! Let's go Cats!!