NCAA Tournament preview: 15 Vermont vs 2 Marquette

March Madness is here and there is no better time of year to be a basketball fan. For the first time in a while Vermont is in a matchup where they are not a popular upset pick. Marquette is a very strong team with one of the best offenses in the country. It would certainly take a herculean effort to pull the upset but at the same time the Cats matchup well with the Golden Eagles and I think it can be a very competitive game. In general this is a very strong group of 15 seeds. Colgate, Princeton, and Vermont have experienced rosters at winning programs and UNC Asheville has one of the top mid-major players in the country in Drew Pember. I did a deep dive on the team rankings pre tournament on T-Rank for 2017-2023 (excluding 2020 and 2021) to see exactly how much of an outlier this group of 15 seeds is. UNC Asheville is in a very typical range for a 15 seed finishing at 177th. Colgate (108th), Vermont (97th), and Princeton (112th) however, are a different story. The average rank for 15 seeds in the 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2022 tournaments was 146th (out of 360ish). This year the 15 seeds average out to a 124th place finish. That is a huge difference and means that this group is closer to a 14 seed profile than a 15 seed profile (the average for a 14 seed over the same span is 113th). To me this is creating a scenario where we will see very competitive 2 vs 15 games during this tournament. I think this is reflective of the extra COVID year and the change in transfer rules making college basketball teams, particularly mid-majors, older and more experienced. It is shaping up to be a really exciting tournament and one in which I think the gap between the bigger and smaller schools has shrunk.

This doesn't feel like a game where there is a glaring exploitable matchup that will overwhelm Vermont. It feels like two efficient offenses who take care of the ball and don't beat themselves going toe to toe. I really like the way these two teams matchup and it makes me excited to see how they will choose to attack each other. A big factor that could help Vermont stay competitive is that Marquette is not a very good rebounding team. They finished toward the bottom of the Big East in several rebounding categories.  Rebounding is something that Vermont, even with their small lineups this season, has consistently been very good at. Once again this season Vermont finished top 10 (6th) in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (courtesy of barttorvik.com) after finishing #1 in the same category last season. Even with different personnel, the Vermont system is elite on the boards. Marquette makes up for being undersized by forcing turnovers at a high rate and pinpoint execution on offense. Vermont has been elite this season at limiting turnovers. Vermont finished the year 9th in the country in turnover percentage (fewest per) and since January first is #1 in that category. These two factors will make this game (and I know it sounds cliché) all about making shots. Both Marquette and Vermont like to shoot threes and make them at a similar clip. Whichever team can get hot from the perimeter will likely take control of the game. Don't get me wrong Marquette is a great team where any player can get hot and win the game on any given night. Tyler Kolek is a great point guard and a dynamic passer. The Golden Eagles rely on him to facilitate at a high level and get high percentage shots for his teammates. Marquette won a lot of close games this season due to sharp execution down the stretch. That is a crucial element to March success. It is also a reason to believe that if Vermont plays up to their potential, they can hang around and keep themselves within striking distance. 

I know I started this post saying that Vermont has no pressure to win and is not a popular upset pick and then proceeded to explain why they have a chance to win. It has actually taken me a while to write this post because even I am having a hard time articulating how I feel about this matchup. Ultimately I think Marquette presents a different challenge than past tourney matchups because they play a style that Vermont has more experience playing against. More of the teams that Vermont plays year in a year out are a bit undersized and play more five out basketball and it wont take a huge stylistic shift for Vermont. In years past with post oriented teams who play back to the basket, it takes a shift in style and the Cats have often struggled with the lack of experience playing those type of teams. 

However the game plays out I am excited to see this team play on national television, see Dylan Penn get his chance in the NCAA tournament, and see all of the adversity and challenges this team faced pay off with an opportunity to go out and shock the world. 

*This post was edited for accuracy on 3/16/23. I inadvertently used the Kenpom rankings in the paragraph analyzing the 15 seeds. It has been updated to reflect the T rank rankings.