A look back at the 2019-2020 season

Before I begin, I hope everyone is staying safe out there. I started to write this post so many times and couldn't finish it because life has been coming at everyone so fast. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected every layer of everyday life and my heart goes out to everyone at this difficult time. I want to thank everyone who reads my posts and talks to me about the Cats. It is a welcome distraction from everything else going on right now.

What a season it was and what a season it could have been. The season started with incredible expectations and ended with so many unanswered questions. Before looking back and taking stock of this season lets look into the crystal ball and see how the games might have played out.

Vermont vs Hartford for the title:
The atmosphere would have been electric as Vermont looked to punch their ticket to the dance. The game would have played out like many of the battles that these two teams have had over the years. Hard-nosed physical defense from both teams. I believe Vermont would have emerged victorious due to a few factors. Hartford's defense is predicated on stopping the three. They actually finished as the best team in the country against the three, holding teams to 27% shooting.  Vermont won many a games this year when shooting poorly from the three. Vermont is finished top five in the country in defending inside the arc and Hartford's offense is focused on the mid-range and in. Hartford really struggled to find consistency on offense this season. Additionally Vermont was significantly better on the boards this season. The last and possibly most significant factor is the difference in depth. Vermont had consistent production from the bench while Hartford did not. While Hartford defended Anthony Lamb better than anyone this season, I think the third time would have been the charm and he would have found a way to be more effective. All in all I think it would have been a very back and forth game with the score finishing around 64-56.

NCAA tournament:
This is where predictions get crazy as trying to guess match-ups at this point is nearly impossible. If Vermont had punched their ticket, I believe they would have been a 13 seed once again. The loss to UMBC killed their chances for a 12 seed barring some of the teams around their seed line getting upset in their conference tournament. Several of the mock brackets had them playing Louisville. That would have been a tough match up as they have a lot of length and three point shooting which are two things that make any upset difficult. Also they played Louisville last season so the Cats would lose some of the surprise factor. There are several Big Ten teams on the 4-5 line and some of those match ups would have been more favorable. A match up against Illinois or Wisconsin would have a little more upset buzz because both of those teams have some weakness that Vermont could exploit and they play at a slow tempo just like the Cats. As I have stated many times in the past, upsets are completely match up dependent. The last two Vermont teams were more than capable of the big upset but ended up with brutal match ups. This years 4-5 line would have been more ripe for upsets so I would say that I really think they would have had their best chance to pull off the first round upset. Predicting anything more than that is tough but I do think it would be very tough to win two games against the 4-5 line. If the other half of their pod also had a big upset than maybe but beating a 4 and then a 5 would have been unlikely.

It was another great season in Catamount Country. Vermont got the big upset they had been looking for in the non-conference and once again dominated the America East. They pushed through the weight of expectation and became a complete team down the stretch. Becker always talks about the program "continuing to move forward" and I believe that Vermont did that this season. They competed at a high level in big games and dominated a league that was better than in years past. They continue to get players to step up when their number is called and make progress year to year. Seeing Bailey Patella and Ben Shungu progress into such crucial roles is exactly why the Vermont program has been able to win with such consistency. Most programs can get the big time player now and then but what sets Vermont apart is the progress their players make during their careers. The run that Everett Duncan went on to complete his career is another example. Both Shungu and Everett used a redshirt year to mold themselves into effective college basketball players. In the case of Shungu all the way to defensive player of the year. It is easy to forget that Shungu missed basically the entire non-conference schedule due to injury. If he had been healthy I believe they would have won a few of the games they dropped. Ryan Davis and Stef Smith also made huge leaps this season. If Davis can stay healthy he has all the makings of a cornerstone player. Stef Smith took his shooting ability to a new level and led the league in three point accuracy. All of those jumps made up for the fact that Anthony Lamb really struggled with his shot-making. In every other aspect of Lamb's game I thought he matured and progressed. He provided tremendous leadership as he finished up one of the finest careers in Vermont history. He placed himself in the Coppenrath/Sorrentine pantheon. Aaron Deloney's progress throughout the year was impressive and he looked like a future star toward the end of the season. It was so devastating to see the end of the season get yanked out from under all these players but how many guys get to win their last college game? Everett went out after the best game of his college career. That is a special silver lining.

Now that is not to say that everything came up roses. The transfer additions did not give the Cats the boost they were looking for. Daniel Giddens struggled to get comfortable in the Cats system and never really found any consistency. He had some nice moments but didn't provide the post dominance they were looking for. Duncan Demuth struggled to stay healthy and also looked as though he needed more time to get comfortable with the system. The ripple effect was that the coaching staff wanted to redshirt Isaiah Powell. That decision was retracted mid season as they desperately needed another post player who was comfortable in the defensive system. That is the third season in a row where redshirting/player development was disrupted by injury and need. Some things are hard to plan for but it is something that the Vermont coaching staff has had to grapple with in recent seasons. What this season really demonstrated was that having an immediate impact as a transfer without the redshirt year to get ready is a lot to ask. It speaks to both how complicated the system is and how well Vermont does at using the redshirt year to prepare players.

The future is bright despite losing so much experience and production. There is no replacing Lamb and Everett brought so many different things to the team. The most significant thing to address will be outside shooting. The Cats struggled this season from the perimeter and are losing 2 of their top 3 three point shooters. I would expect to see the coaching staff try to address this with some of their available scholarships. Davis will be the key to the season. They have depth at the guard position and Smith is ready to become the go to scorer. Davis becoming a go to guy in the post will be what defines the Cats success. Justin Mazzulla will join the team as a transfer  and Georges Lefebvre is the only freshman currently in the 2020 recruiting class. Lefebvre is oozing with talent but big men in the Vermont system often struggle to get up to speed with the defensive system in their first year. He might need some time, but he is going to be an impact player before long. I am also interested in Nick Fiorillo's development. He showed some flashes in the preseason scrimmages and he is another player who could make an impact maybe not next season but in seasons to come. I will reference what said earlier about Vermont's success with using the redshirt season. Next season might be the last one in Patrick gym which will give it another layer of emotion. The buzz around the program will still be there as the progress on the Tarrant Center begins to take shape.

The offseason will be very different as recruiting has also been shut down and the coaching carousel will likely be quieter as schools will be more hesitant to move on after a strange end to the season. With sporting events shut down for the foreseeable future the recruiting season is going to be shortened and coaching staffs are going to be scrambling to make up for lost time. As I am finally finishing up this post Vermont received a commitment from an immediately eligible transfer from Northeastern. I will be writing another post directly after this one. Enjoy the offseason and stay safe.