13 Vermont vs 4 Florida State: March Madness preview

The Catamounts are back in the big dance. Here are a few thoughts about their upcoming matchup.

Florida State is an imposing opponent. They are big, strong, and athletic. A defensive minded team with balanced scoring. The Seminoles have 8 players that are averaging between 6 and 13 points per game. They are led by Mifondu Kabengele, a 6-10 forward. Terrance Mann, a 6-7 guard is the Seminoles best all around player. Also on the team is a familiar face. David Nichols transferred from Albany and has spent this season as a key contributor off the bench. Vermont has the best case scenario for a lower seeded team as they get as close to a home game as possible. The game will be played in Hartford, CT if front of what will be a very pro Vermont crowd. The Cats were in a similar situation when they pulled off the Syracuse upset as a 13 seed playing in Worcester, MA. As a lower seeded team, that type of atmosphere is honestly more important than the matchups on the court. No matter what when pulling an upset, the higher seeded team has to have an off night. Just rewatch the upset of Syracuse and what will jump out at you is how poorly the Orange played in that game.  Getting a few of the outside factors in Vermont's favor is only going to help. Catamount fans travel well and I would expect the arena to be tipped very much in Vermont's favor. There is so much about an NCAA tournament game that is out of teams control such as travel time, crowd noise, game time, etc. The fact that most of those extraneous factors are seemingly tipped toward Vermont is a plus. Now for a few thoughts about the game itself.

The blueprint for a Vermont upset:

First and foremost the Cats have to stay in the game early. Many an upset bid has been swallowed up by a slow start. This doesn't mean they need to have a lead, they just have to be competing. From there it is about taking what Florida State will give them. The Seminoles are not a great three point shooting team. When looking at the competitive games that Vermont has played against big time competition over the past few years, the three point line has always been a key. Take the Purdue tournament game two years ago. Before the game one of the big concerns was the size of Purdue. Certainly the big men had an effect on the game, but the deciding factor was perimeter shooting. In the Kansas game earlier this season, it took LaGerald Vick shooting 8-8 from three to finally shake the Catamounts. Over the course of the season, Florida State has struggled to consistently make perimeter shots. If Vermont can force the Seminoles to be a perimeter oriented team, it will greatly increase their chance of pulling an upset. If they can do that on defense AND hit perimeter shots of their own, the game will be very competitive. Vermont has also been inconsistent from the three point line this season. They have a collection of shooters that can get hot and if Stef Smith can continue his late season surge Vermont will be able to win the battle at the three point line.

The free throw line is another interesting thing to keep track of for both teams. Florida State shoots 74% from the line and gets to the line at a high rate. Vermont is going to have to contend with the big men underneath and the Seminoles wing players slashing to the rim. The Cats are one of the best in the country at keeping their opponents off the line. Conversely Florida state puts their opponents on the line at a very high rate. Their physical style has put them in foul trouble at times and their opponents have been able to take advantage. Vermont shot 75% from the line this season and it will be crucial to cash in their chances when they get there.

Rebounding is key in any game and with the size that Florida State has it will be important for the Cats to get on the boards. Vermont has been exceptional at preventing offensive rebounds over the past few seasons. This season they were once again top ten in fewest offensive rebounds given up. If you go to look a the Cats T Rank you will see that they led the country in defensive rebounding percentage. This is one of the areas that has allowed Vermont to remain competitive against tough competition.

Last but not least, the Cats get to play loose as the underdog for once. They have spent the better part of the last three years as the hunted. Now they can embrace the moment and play without fear. This team is so mentally tough and even keeled. Never too high, never too low. In the games against Kansas and Louisville earlier in the season, Vermont was able to battle back each time it looked like the game was going to get away from them. I would expect the same winning mentality in this game on Thursday afternoon. I think they are going to make a game of it and it is going to be fun to watch.