The season is upon us!
Time for some serious prognostication. I have decided not to write a separate America East preview this season. The league is going to be nearly impossible to predict. Every team is replacing significant portions of their rotation. Heck, Albany is even replacing its entire team. In my mind Hartford and Vermont are the clear contenders. They are the two teams returning significant pieces from a successful season. Albany, UMBC, and Stony Brook are going to be the spoilers. If there is any coach that can engineer a complete roster overhaul and still be competitive, it is Will Brown. UMBC and Stony Brook return enough to keep them pushing the top teams. The rest of the league is going to struggle. With so much talent exiting the league and a big influx of young players, game to game consistency is going to be a task for every team. So instead of writing a league preview I will stick to what I know, Vermont basketball. Here are some thoughts on how this season will unfold.
Record: 20-10 (13-3) 1st place finish, NCAA berth.
Despite what will be an up and down season, I think the talent will coalesce come conference schedule time and ultimately this team will be playing their best basketball in March. The talent level on this team remains very high. The three freshman are inexperienced but loaded with potential. They are going to be asked to play a significant role from day one and because of that are going to have the opportunity to work through their growing pains early. Vermont has a very difficult non-conference schedule with four teams picked to win their conference (Kansas, Harvard, Northeastern, Lipscomb) and a fifth in Bucknell that received the most first place votes but was picked to finish second. This makes the process of working out the kinks and creating chemistry even more difficult. When this team is on and playing as a unit they can play with just about anyone. When players are learning their roles and adjusting to the college game, this team is going to struggle. Due to the change in personnel, Becker is making some adjustments to the offensive game plan as well. It has been evident through the scrimmages that they are going to give Anthony Lamb touches on as many possessions as possible. The offense is going to come from inside out much more this season. This also means that for the first time in several years, the Cats will actually have a true leading scorer. Vermont will still have balanced scoring but Lamb is going to be up in the 16-17 ppg range. The Cats haven't had a player average over 15 ppg since Marqus Blakely averaged 17.3 ppg in the 2009-2010 season. That is a long stretch of a very balanced scoring system.
Starting five: Ernie Duncan, Stef Smith, Everett Duncan, Isaiah Moll, Anthony Lamb
I think the starting lineup is going to be a very fluid thing this season and will be very matchup dependent. Stef Smith and Robin Duncan each bring their own specialty and are going to be deployed based on the opponent. I could see Robin's defensive prowess earning him a lot of minutes. Isaiah Moll's scoring ability is going to give the Cats so much offensive versatility. I do see Ra Kpedi and Ryan Davis playing more against teams with true big men. I think Davis is going to have the steepest learning curve of any of the newcomers. It is very hard to step into college basketball and Vermont's system in particular as a big man. The adjustment is different than that of a perimeter player. I think about how long it took Drew Urquhart to develop and how lost Lamb looked at times during the early part of his freshman year. Lamb was experiencing the same struggles that Davis is mired in right now. A step slow on the defensive rotations, getting called for a lot of ticky tack fouls, going for the big play instead of the simple one. I think Davis is going to take his lumps early on but if he can persevere, he will be a big part of the rotation during the conference schedule.
Keys to Success
The season hinges on three things in my mind: turnovers, rebounding, and defense. As with any inexperienced team, valuing the ball is of the utmost importance. Limiting turnovers is so crucial in controlling game flow and closing out opponents. Team chemistry is a significant factor in a team's ability to take care of the ball. However fast the Cats can progress in this area this season will be a huge determinant in their game to game consistency. Rebounding is another key in controlling the game flow as it, much like turnovers, limits the opponents opportunities to score. At its most basic level that is what a defense does. It limits offensive opportunities. Payton Henson and Urquhart were great on the boards last season and rebounding is much more difficult to replace than scoring. Last but not least the defense itself. Becker is excited about the defensive potential of this team with its length and athleticism. The potential is definitely there but the rotations still have a long way to go. The system that Becker runs is complicated and it relies on everyone being where they need to be as opposed to relying on individually strong defenders. The defensive rotations are the place where I see the youth and inexperience the most. If this group works through that inexperience quickly they can be a very good defensive team.
Overall outlook
This group has the potential again play for a championship. They have the talent and the drive to get back to the NCAA tournament. This team has the potential to rise up and steal a few of those tough non conference games, particularly the tough opponents that they get at home. I think they will again be an efficient offensive team that shoots a high percentage. I also see Ernie, Everett, and Lamb making big jumps in their production and really seizing control as the leaders of this team. The tempo that Vermont plays at will probably be a little faster than the last few seasons as they try to take advantage of their athleticism. I expect the team to be fun to watch and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder from the disappointing end to last season. Friday cant come soon enough.
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