It is time to begin another season in Catamount country. The hype and expectations surrounding this group are massive. The Vermont program is getting national attention and all eyes will be on this team throughout the season. After finally reaching the NCAA tournament this group comes in with a different set of challenges than the ones they faced a year ago. Instead of playing with a chip on their shoulder or revenge on their mind, they are the hunted. Bringing back the core of last years team and the potential for improvement is the foundation on which all of this hype has been built. Anthony Lamb, Trae Bell-Haynes, Payton Henson, and Ernie Duncan are ready to build on last years exceptional play and lead Vermont back to the NCAA tournament. Cam Ward, Drew Urquhart and Nate Rohrer also return to give the Catamounts some experienced depth off the bench. This team has the potential to again be very special and here is how I see the season playing out.
Record: 25-6 (15-1) 1 seed, Win in the championship game against Albany.
Starters: Trae Bell-Haynes
Ernie Duncan
Everett Duncan
Anthony Lamb
Payton Henson
It goes without saying that this team is going to very similar to last years team. Efficient offensively and with the ability to blow games wide open with their relentless ability to attack the basket. This team has so many weapons on the offensive end that is is hard for an opposing defense to pick out a player that they are going to stop. On any given night, any one of the starters could put up 20 points. This ability to score in bunches from anywhere is what wore teams down last year, particularly in the conference portion of the schedule. Last year Becker proved that he could teach his defensive scheme and have it be effective with offensively minded players. The defense will be the question mark to begin the season. Kurt Steidl and Dre Wills were not just good defenders. They were elite defenders. No one on this years team is ready as of right now to reach the defensive levels those two players had achieved, particularly on the ball. Vermont had the luxury of being able to lock down or at least make life difficult for most of the perimeter scorers they encountered. It is going to take a strong team effort to bring the defense along and have it be humming by the time the conference schedule rolls around.
Keys to success:
Depth: Last year the Cats were able to mix and match lineups based on the game, who was hot, who was struggling, or to deal with foul trouble. This depth gave them a huge advantage as most teams were unable to make the same level of adjustments during the game. That depth is going to be tested this season. With so many newcomers, it is going to take some time for roles to be defined. It is going to be especially crucial on the defensive end as Coach Becker's defensive scheme is not easy to pick up. Even Anthony Lamb went through a significant period of struggle as he was trying to figure out his role on the team and learn the defensive rotations. It also means that Vermont my not be able to adapt as easily to the flow of the game or if they get into foul trouble. By the conference schedule the depth could be a strength as the young players get up to speed but it will be one of the big early season story lines.
The new faces: After the exhibition games two things were clear: The new additions have an incredible amount of potential and like all freshman, they are going to be inconsistent. Stef Smith is going to be spark plug off the bench and will be able to bring instant offense. Everett Duncan is going to be another threat from the perimeter. Skyler Nash, Bailey Patella, Ben Shungu, and Ra Kpedi all showed flashes of what they can bring to the table as they get used to the college game. Samuel Dingba had a poor exhibition showing and it will be interesting to see what he has to offer down the road. It all comes down to how quickly can they learn to play within themselves and the team while limiting mistakes.
Staying Hungry: After last year I have no doubts about the mental toughness and resolve of this team. Throughout last season the were able to meet each challenge head on and proved to be an incredibly focused team. However, finally reaching your goal and being talked up so much in the preseason can have a completely different effect. The challenge now is not to "believe the hype" and be satisfied with just getting to the NCAA tournament. This team has the potential to compete with the big boys if they can bring that focus and mental toughness with them this season as well.
Worse......but better? How do you improve on an undefeated conference season? This is the challenge facing the Cats. They played an entire year without really playing a bad game or having an off night. They won 21 games in a row and set all sorts of records. What happens when they lose? How will they and the fans handle it? These are all fair questions. Eventually you would think that the ball wont bounce their way and they will lose a conference game. This to me is going to be the biggest challenge this season. It sounds weird but they can still be a better team this season even if they have a worse record. Their non-conference is incredibly challenging and Albany is going to be much improved and hungry this season.
Schedule: Coach Becker talked at length about how hard it was to put a schedule together this offseason. As a result Vermont is on the road against very difficult opponents. The Cats face 5 teams that were picked first or second in their conference preseason poll. Becker has called it the most challenging schedule they have put together. That can take a toll. Night in and night out against tough competition can make you tougher come March, but it can also sap your confidence going into the conference schedule. Keeping the focus on getting better everyday and the ultimate goal will be key early in the season.
New Arena/The Future: One of the last things I want to mention is how the new arena proposal plays out this year. Becker has said he wants to see this thing through and be a part of the program as long as it is moving forward. He made it very clear that the new arena was a big part of that. As Vermont continues to build momentum and garner national attention, capitalizing on this success and getting that new arena built is the single important most factor in the future success of the Vermont program.
I believe that this team has the opportunity to break through and get some big non-conference wins. The versatility of the team and the offensive firepower is going to surprise some teams. The newcomers have a tremendous amount of potential. The speed and scoring ability that has been added to this year's team is only going to make the Cats even more difficult to guard. I think the league as a whole will be similar to where it was last season. While there is a lot of returning talent, most teams are replacing a significant part of their rotation. Albany is going to be improved and once again they are ready to be Vermont's biggest challenger. That rivalry is going to be at a high level this season. I am incredibly excited to see what this team can accomplish this year and expect them to steal a game or two in the non-conference schedule. 3:30 on Sunday can't come soon enough.
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