For the first time since I started my blog, the Vermont Catamounts have a NCAA Tournament game. I am very excited for the game tomorrow night and I thought I would give a few of my thoughts on the matchup.
I was really hoping that the Cats would sneak into the upset special 12v5 matchup. If ever there was a year they had a chance, this was it. I was a little disappointed that they didn't get there but a 13 seed it still great. The 13v4 games are also a very common place for an upset. Since 2000 the 13 seed as beaten the 4 seed 14 times. This includes 9 out of the last 11 tournaments where there has been at least one 13v4 upset, including two in the 2008 tournament. Lower seed upsets are becoming more common and I believe it is due to a trickle down from the "one and done" rule. Most people focus on the high caliber players that would've have skipped college altogether and end up at Duke and Kentucky. Often people don't talk about how the players that would have ended up playing at those big schools without the rule, then disperse to other schools and the chain reaction continues on down. As a result mid-majors are more likely to secure a higher level of talent. Being a 13 seed puts Vermont squarely in the upset zone.
As a rule in order to pull off and upset, the favored team has to play below their usual level. If Purdue comes out tomorrow and plays at their best, Vermont's chances at an upset decrease greatly. For a lower seed to win there has to be the perfect combination of factors. The lower seed has to exceed their typical level of play while forcing the higher seed to play outside of their comfort zone. The other main ingredient is for the higher seed to then play poorly and make the game close as long into the game as possible. Sprinkle a little heroics and contributions from unexpected sources and voila, you have an upset. I have personally rewatched the Vermont over Syracuse (also a 13-4 game) in its entirety no less than 15 times. It was an ugly game where Syracuse and particularly Gerry Mcnamara played very poorly. Vermont also got an incredible out of nowhere career game from Germain Mopa Njila. Then the added heroics of T.J. Sorrentine's shot "from the parking lot" and the rest is history. In order to pull the upset over Purdue, Vermont will need all of the pieces to fall into place.
Purdue won the Big 10 regular season title and did so with a combination of big men and three pointers. Caleb Swanigan is a national player of the year contender and generally an absolute beast. The double double machine can shoot it from the outside and dominate in the post. Purdue also has a giant in Isaac Haas to complement Swanigan in the post. Vermont will have to throw some double teams their way and hope that forces them into turnovers. Payton Henson and Anthony Lamb will also have to use their outside shooting to pull them out from under the basket and force Purdue to work harder on defense. As for the three pointers, the last time these two teams met that was the difference. Purdue hit a school record 18 three pointers in that game. Every time Vermont tried to claw back into the game, Purdue calmly knocked down a three. This Vermont team is worlds better at defending the three and that is really the key to the game. If Vermont can force Pudue into an off shooting night it will allow the Cats to hang in the game. The longer the game stays close, the better Vermont's chances of winning. So many tournament games are lost in the first 10 minutes when the nerves and adrenaline can combine for a slow start. Getting down big early against a favorite allows them to relax and makes the underdog have to work that much harder to win the game. How Vermont comes out and plays in the first 10 minutes will be very telling as to how the rest of the game is going to play out.
This is a tough matchup for Vermont but a game they have a chance to win. They played this Purdue team last season and many of the same players for both sides and back for this game. Vermont got to Milwaukee early and the players are on spring break so there are no classes to worry about. The pressure from the long win streak and the conference season has been lifted and the Cats can give it their all without fear. For Vermont to win they will need to force Purdue to have an off shooting night, force Swanigan and Haas to give the ball up, and in the process force some turnovers. On offense they should drive the ball at the rim and force Purdue to contest shots, maybe draw a few fouls in the process. Purdue is not a great shot blocking team and both Swanigan and Haas can be beat with quickness. The Cats also have to shoot well from three. The three has come and gone for Vermont this season but when they shoot well from three they are at their most dangerous. As I stated above the longer Vermont keeps the game close the more Purdue will feel the pressure. They lost in the first round last season so the pressure is all on them to change the result this year. I for one can't wait for this matchup and expect Vermont to play a very competitive game.
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