The expectations are high for another season in Catamount country. The excitement has been building and today it is time for the hype to begin its journey into reality.
Record: 22-9 (13-3) 1 seed, win in the championship against Albany.
Starting five: Trae Bell-Haynes
Ernie Duncan
Kurt Steidl
Anthony Lamb (he may not start right away, but will be before long)
Payton Henson
Team Leaders:
Scoring: Everyone......but seriously Vermont is going to have as many as 5 players averaging between 10-12 points.
Rebounds: Lamb. He has that Voelkel-like ability to go get the ball no matter where it is.
Assists: Duncan. I think the great passing that he showed very briefly during his redshirt year comes back.
This is the year the Cats transition from plucky young underdogs to experienced favorite. The biggest key to their success will be if they are mentally able to make that shift. The talent is there. This team will be very efficient offensively and is going to be able to run away from some teams by purely outscoring them. The defense should be slightly better, although the rule changes are going to make that process difficult. There are going to be a large number of fouls called, especially in the early part of the season as the NCAA continues the freedom of movement point of emphasis. Get ready for some ugly non-conference games. It is getting harder and harder to play tough, on the ball man to man defense in college basketball. As a result the definition of what a good defense is looks like it is changing. Much like last year, the newcomers are going to have lapses on defense early on as they get used to the system. Coach Becker admitted his "teach offensive players defense" has been more difficult than he anticipated and it will be interesting to see if he has more success with that idea this year. This is the type of team that could steal a few surprise wins in the non-conference if they are able to get the chemistry going much earlier in the season than the last few years.
Keys to Success
Managing minutes: Having too many good players is a nice problem to have but can also be a very tricky one. It seems like the players have bought into the "winning is everything" mentality. This should help limit some of the disappointment with minute fluctuation. This team also has strong leadership and a great trio of captains to remind everyone of the ultimate goal. Another difficulty with a deep team is making sure the right player is playing at the right time. Balancing when to pull a struggling player or who to put in to take advantage of a match-up can be tricky. When a team has a small rotation, the players out there are the players you got and you ride them for better or worse. This year the lineups could be vastly different game to game. This can be both a blessing and a curse as that leaves more in game decisions for the coaching staff and more in game uncertainty for the players.
Rebounding/post defense: I am going to put these two categories together as they are very closely related. On paper Vermont will be an improved rebounding team. With Albany and New Hampshire shaping up to be the biggest threats in the America East, rebounding will be at the heart of conference success. Both Albany and New Hampshire are still going to be very good rebounding teams and Vermont will hopefully be able to close the gap. The biggest loss the Cats will experience from Ethan O'Day's graduation will be his shot blocking. He was an exceptional shot blocker and bailed Vermont out often with his individual efforts. Without a great shot blocker to protect the rim, Vermont is going have to play better help side defense and not get caught up in the air trying for the big shot block. Having a great shot blocker is not a necessity to have good interior defense. Teams just have to be more diligent in their execution of the defensive scheme.
Mental toughness: Playing conference games as the favorite means everyone gives you their best shot. Teams circle you on the calendar and they all want to the the one to knock you down. To play at a high level, Vermont is going have to be mentally tougher than every other team in the conference. This group has demonstrated the ability to overcome a tremendous amount of adversity and stay together during their few years together. Vermont now is tasked with proving that they can win in the tournament. It is easy to rationalize tough playoff losses when they come after a season in which a team has overachieved. Vermont has had the luxury of being in that situation the past two years. The fact is Vermont has struggled in the playoffs for several years and the last two years they have blown significant leads in the process. The regular season success has been fun but it is time to win the title. This is the year where the team has to make a statement that they can win in the tournament. Anything short of a championship will be a colossal disappointment and the question will start to become: will they ever win in the tournament?
Beating Albany: Here is the big one. I am sure the fans know how that Albany has been a thorn in the Cats side for quite sometime, but when you look at the numbers it is startling. Vermont has lost 5 straight games overall to Albany putting their last win on 2/1/2014. That is almost three years. Ouch. When you dig deeper and look at just games in the conference tournament the dominance is overwhelming. Vermont's career record against Albany in the tournament is 1-5. They have lost 5 straight tournament games to Albany and that puts their one and only win on 3/9/2003. 2003!! That is quite a stretch of dominance for the Great Danes. Albany is going to be very good again this year and Vermont has to find a way to break through. There is no path to the championship without beating Albany.
If Vermont can remain mentally tough and focused on the ultimate goal, they will have a great season that should result in a championship. They have a very exciting group of players and will play an exciting brand of basketball. Being a fan this year will be a high excitement/high anxiety kind of year. Whenever "your" team is the favorite it makes every single game seem that much more important as the push the tournament marches on. I really like this team this year and believe in their ability to succeed. Unfortunately there is only one result that will feel satisfying. This year there is no consolation prize. It is time to break through.
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