Vermont Season Preview

It is another exciting year in Catamount country and time to get ready for the regular season. For me that means organizing my thoughts and making a few predictions. Without further ado.

Record: 21-10 (11-5) 3rd seed, loss in semi-final to Albany.

Starting five: Tough to predict. Duncan will be starting before long. Wills will be starting when he is healthy. I think the starting 5 that will be used most often will be Duncan, Wills, Steidl, Payen, O'Day.

Leading Scorer: It is going to be another year of balanced scoring. I could see either O'Day or even Payen lead the team at only 11 points per game.

Rebounds: If he is healthy Wills. If not it will be O'Day.

Assists: Again, if healthy, Duncan.

This team is going to be the best scoring team that Vermont has had in a long time. With the rule changes focused on improving offensive output and offensive upgrades at several positions, there will be a sharp scoring increase for the Cats. Adding Duncan to an already strong group of shooters, will give the Cats a tremendous group on the perimeter. Payen gives Vermont a second interior scorer which is also an upgrade from last year. Vermont was good offensively last year without a great passer on the team. Duncan immediately becomes the best passer on the team and will make his teammates better by getting them open looks. The Cats will play an exciting brand of basketball. On the defensive side of the ball, there will be a bit of a step back. Wills health is concerning and it is going to a while before Payen and Duncan get up to speed with the defensive scheme. The ability to get stops down the stretch is going to take time and during the nonconference it is going to be a work in progress. The hope is by conference schedule time the defense will be up to speed.

Keys to Success

Health: Duncan and Wills are the current health concerns but overall health is an even greater concern. With only 9 scholarship players, any injuries will force players into bigger roles and will shorten the bench. This lack of depth is something that Becker has not had to deal with during his tenure. Remaining healthy may be the biggest factor in Vermont's success this year.

New Roles: With Payen coming off a redshirt year, Drew Urquhart playing larger minutes, and either Cam Ward or Trae Bell-Haynes playing less minutes, players will be faced with challenges. Transfers often take time to adjust and a lot is going to be expected of Payen from the get go. Urquhart has a great opportunity to play a big role but continues to draw the ire of Coach Becker. One of the interesting battles will be for playing time at the guard positions. There are only so many minutes to go around and someone is going to end up playing less than they would like to. All of the players accepting their roles and accepting the good with the bad will be important for the team to develop chemistry.

Rebounding: This Vermont team is not going to be a strong rebounding team. Much like last year, they are going to have to make up for it with shooting a high percentage and running an efficient offense. In the games against Albany and Stony Brook, Vermont is going to have to find a way to close the rebounding gap if they are going to make a push for the title.

Foul trouble: It is no secret that O'Day has struggled with foul trouble. Payen looks a bit foul prone as well and with the rule changes there are going to be quite a few more fouls called. Just like with players staying healthy, players staying out of foul trouble will also be important. With a thin bench it will be more difficult replace minutes missed due to foul trouble.

I think Vermont will be a very good team this year. The Ken Pomeroy preseason rankings put Vermont at number 89 (one behind Stony Brook who is at 88). I still think the Albany postseason spell will continue with Peter Hooley in his senior season. Stony Brook is also going to be pretty close to dominant which will make a run at the title somewhat of a gantlet. For the Cats, this year will continue the run of regular season success, but will present some very challenging postseason hurdles. This momentum will build to next season when I think Vermont will again be the favorite to win the league. Adding the two Tulane transfers and heralded freshman Anthony Lamb to the team will solidify the frontcourt and make Vermont a complete team. I am excited to see this years team and hope that they can put it all together and make a run at the title.