Vermont 23-24 season preview

Before I begin my preview I wanted to take a minute to recognize a milestone. November 5th 2013 was my very first post and this one will be my 470th. A whole decade of blogging. Writing this blog has been such a cool experience and being a part of this little community that it has created brings me great joy. I am so thankful to all the people who have come along on this journey with me. I certainly never imagined when I started I would still be writing 10 years later and am excited to see where the next 10 take me. So thanks for reading, reaching out, and cheering on Vermont basketball. 

Once again Vermont enters this season with high expectations. As is par for the course, the Cats are expected to come out on top despite integrating eight new players into the program. Vermont was in a similar situation last season and managed to overcome early season struggles to raise the trophy once again. The integration process last season was slow and had many twists and turns. This group already looks to have a leg up in that department, looking ahead of the game in building team chemistry. From the jump it seemed like this group was focused and together. This years team has the look of a team ready to drive towards a championship. So let us dive in and take a look at this year's team. 

Projected record: 24-7 (13-3) 1st in America East, NCAA tourney berth

The non conference slate is not nearly as daunting this season and I would expect Vermont to come together as a team on a more accelerated timeline than last season. That is not to say that they don't have some very tough teams on their schedule and the Myrtle Beach Invitational will be a tremendous early season litmus test. The opening game of that tournament against Charleston is one of the best early season mid-major matchups. Then comes a great home slate of northeast mid major basketball. Both Yale (picked 1st in Ivy) and Colgate (picked 1st in Patriot) visit Patrick Gym the first two Saturdays in December. Those should be incredible, high level matchups. As far as the conference schedule goes, it starts with three home games and then a daunting stretch in mid January where the Cats have to go to Binghamton, UMass Lowell, and Bryant consecutively.

Defining roles

The biggest discussion topic during the offseason has been the amount of talented players that Vermont has. It has been clear throughout that the Cats have ready contributors all the way down the line. That means the competition for playing time is going to be fierce. This is both a good problem to have and a challenging one to manage. It is going to be very easy to nitpick and what decides playing time could be some of the most minute differences in performance. On the plus side all reports thus far are that guys are fully invested in winning and being ready when their number is called. That type of chemistry and programmatic buy in is crucial with such a deep team. However, when the rotation inevitably shrinks or players are slumping, the coaches are going to have the hard job of motivating and supporting each player to find and excel in whatever role they have. 

Changing expectations

Every single player on this year's team is in a situation that is different from their previous college experiences. Aaron Deloney is going from instant offense bench scorer to main option. Matt Veretto is going from surprise contributor and feel good story to being counted on for production. The new players are coming into a program where winning a title is not just the goal, but the expectation. All of these new experiences can be tough and there have certainly been players in the past who rise up and meet the expectations right away and others that take time to find their place. This years non conference schedule will be all about the players and coaches finding the role that puts each player in the best position to succeed.

Point guard?

As kind of a secondary part to the new roles discussion is who emerges as the Cats point guard. Vermont has a lot of great guards who are ready to initiate the offense and make plays for their teammates, but outside of Jace Roquemore, none are pure point guards. Last season it was the switch of responsibilities between Finn Sullivan and Dylan Penn that unlocked the Cats offense and I would expect a similar learning curve this season as the players and coaching staff figure out who to give the keys to. Having good point guard play has been the absolute hallmark of Vermont basketball year in and year out and how this role ends up being distributed will have one of the biggest impacts on the Vermont season. 

Rebounding

I feel like I write about rebounding in every season preview and every year Vermont finds a way to excel at what I will call "rebound prevention". The Cats have been one of the best teams in the nation over the last few seasons in defensive rebounding percentage. Vermont keeps teams off the offensive glass and shoots efficiently on the offensive end, leading to less rebounding opportunities. The Cats have always sacrificed playing at a faster pace with making sure that everyone gets to their rebounding assignments and keeps teams off the glass. There has been some discussion of playing faster and taking more chances and it will be interesting to see how that is balanced with being strong on the boards. There is no clear strong rebounder this season and much like Robin Duncan last season, someone is going to have to make a big jump in their rebounding numbers. Much like at point guard, there are a lot of good candidates on the roster.

In the Nick of time?

I know, I know, a terrible pun. Couldn't help myself. In all seriousness, Nick Fiorillo can have a big impact on this team if he can get healthy. He knows the system and is able to do whatever the team needs him to do. If he can make it back for conference play he will give the team a big boost in not just some added frontcourt depth, but as leader. He can continue to play that leadership role on the bench but being able to get back on the court can give that leadership another dimension. Nick is a classic "impact goes beyond the box score" player. 

Breakouts incoming

With so much talent and potential on the roster, breakout seasons could come from anywhere. The biggest factor in the sustained success of the Vermont program is the player development from season to season. Every year someone (often more than one someone) makes a big jump and steps into a larger role. So far TJ Hurley and Ileri Ayo-Faleye look to have the inside track on returners making a big jump. Matt Veretto already had a large role last season and will be looking to get a bump up as well. Through the two exhibition games TJ Long has demonstrated all the hallmarks of a guy that is ready to thrive in the Vermont ecosystem. Shamir Bogues will be looking to get going after a missing some exhibition time with what looks like a minor injury. Some of the younger guys will likely get a shot as well but as is the trend across college basketball, veterans are king. 

Defense

Just one last quick note. Death, Taxes, Vermont's defense. Nothing new there. This team however has a chance to be special for a couple of reasons. One, they have lots of strength and length. Up and down the roster they have physically capable defenders to integrate into the Vermont system. That aspect looks solid and predictable. One little wrinkle that will be a fun thing to monitor is having a player like Bogues who thrives in a more aggressive, in the passing lanes style that has not been a hallmark of the Vermont system. Despite being a great defensive team, the Cats are rarely big on forcing turnovers. Bogues has the ability to be a one man wrecking crew in that department and coupled with the rest of the good defenders, could give the defense a dimension it has rarely had. 

Overall my gut says that this team has a chance to be special. as I said earlier, there is a feel when watching them play that this group came to Vermont to win. Now all that is left is to play the games. 

P.S. 

    On a personal note the beginning of this season is going to be a little bit different for me as I am actually writing this post "right across the street" in the UVM children's hospital with my daughter as she recovers from a bought of appendicitis. She will be here all week so I will be watching the opener with her in her room.