This doesn't feel like a game where there is a glaring exploitable matchup that will overwhelm Vermont. It feels like two efficient offenses who take care of the ball and don't beat themselves going toe to toe. I really like the way these two teams matchup and it makes me excited to see how they will choose to attack each other. A big factor that could help Vermont stay competitive is that Marquette is not a very good rebounding team. They finished toward the bottom of the Big East in several rebounding categories. Rebounding is something that Vermont, even with their small lineups this season, has consistently been very good at. Once again this season Vermont finished top 10 (6th) in the country in defensive rebounding percentage (courtesy of barttorvik.com) after finishing #1 in the same category last season. Even with different personnel, the Vermont system is elite on the boards. Marquette makes up for being undersized by forcing turnovers at a high rate and pinpoint execution on offense. Vermont has been elite this season at limiting turnovers. Vermont finished the year 9th in the country in turnover percentage (fewest per) and since January first is #1 in that category. These two factors will make this game (and I know it sounds cliché) all about making shots. Both Marquette and Vermont like to shoot threes and make them at a similar clip. Whichever team can get hot from the perimeter will likely take control of the game. Don't get me wrong Marquette is a great team where any player can get hot and win the game on any given night. Tyler Kolek is a great point guard and a dynamic passer. The Golden Eagles rely on him to facilitate at a high level and get high percentage shots for his teammates. Marquette won a lot of close games this season due to sharp execution down the stretch. That is a crucial element to March success. It is also a reason to believe that if Vermont plays up to their potential, they can hang around and keep themselves within striking distance.
I know I started this post saying that Vermont has no pressure to win and is not a popular upset pick and then proceeded to explain why they have a chance to win. It has actually taken me a while to write this post because even I am having a hard time articulating how I feel about this matchup. Ultimately I think Marquette presents a different challenge than past tourney matchups because they play a style that Vermont has more experience playing against. More of the teams that Vermont plays year in a year out are a bit undersized and play more five out basketball and it wont take a huge stylistic shift for Vermont. In years past with post oriented teams who play back to the basket, it takes a shift in style and the Cats have often struggled with the lack of experience playing those type of teams.
However the game plays out I am excited to see this team play on national television, see Dylan Penn get his chance in the NCAA tournament, and see all of the adversity and challenges this team faced pay off with an opportunity to go out and shock the world.
*This post was edited for accuracy on 3/16/23. I inadvertently used the Kenpom rankings in the paragraph analyzing the 15 seeds. It has been updated to reflect the T rank rankings.
Great write up! Couldn’t agree more with your analysis. As with any good opponent its going to take a great game on both ends to have a chance of winning. Limit mistakes and I like our chances
ReplyDeleteAgreed!
DeleteGreat points here. Marquette is obviously a much better team, but you never know what will happen in these games. I do have one big concern if you're a UVM fan (I am, but I'm a bigger MU fan). You mentioned that UVM has one of the lowest turnover rates in the country, which is a great thing, but they haven't seen anything like the type of defensive pressure that Marquette is going to bring.
ReplyDeleteFor sure! Those havoc defensive principles are tough and Vermont will have to really execute. The first 10 minutes are crucial, when the jitters and nerves are the highest. Can't let the pressure speed them up and force them into mistakes.
DeleteHow UVM handles the pressure will be key. However, the opposite can also be said. How Marquette handles the combined pressure of being a number 2 seed and the pressure UVM's defense can apply. UVM has played several big teams on the road and did well (reference the USC game). We are a much better team now and I agree with Lee that UVM can play loose. I don't see Penn, Verretto, Duncan, Gibson, or Sullivan rolling over easily. They are veterans and UVM platoons off the bench with Deloney and Fiorillo, both of whom are navy vets. Add in Ayo-Faleye who plays with wild abandonment and who knows. I just can't believe this UVM team at this point will shy away from the challenge. It's Marquette's backcourt speed and offensive explosiveness that UVM will have to address with top level defensive rotations. If the fail to do this (similar to the St. Mary's game early in the season) then it could be a long afternoon. Can't help but believe that this team has grown together as a unit this season and will bring Marquette their "A" game.
ReplyDeleteThe defensive rotations will be super important as Marquette runs some great actions on and off the ball. I agree that the mentality and mindset will be there. This team is focused.
DeleteHurley is a very good three point shooter who is over due to have a break out game. This may be the game ! He’s deadly from the three point zone when he’s on his game. Add Deloney, Finn andGibson clicking together and UVM may just win
ReplyDeleteThree point shooting is key.
DeleteI inadvertently left out Verretto and of course Robin Duncan with his assists and smart plays
ReplyDeleteUnlike last year when the Cats were a 13 seed, absolutely no prognosticator that I have seen has picked the upset. Marquette is an elite Offensive team and I fear a 14-0 run. However if the Catamounts can avoid the big run and their 3 main offensive threats can hit some 3s, they have a shot of keeping it close...and then anything can happen. Despite the very deserved hype for Kolek- if Robin can somewhat neutralize him, post him up, hit those free throws- that should work. I know the Big East is a rugged conference known for it's rock fights but it is more of an offensive conference these days. Marquette may not be prepared for the defensive intensity they are about to face- St John's took them to OT in the first round of the BE tourney and held them to 72 points. Something like that.
ReplyDeleteGreat work all season Lee-Thanks!!
The biggest key is not falling behind early. Weather the first storm and then settle in. Thanks for reading!
DeleteCome on Cats… tune into the Princeton win, the Furman win! Inspiring!
ReplyDeleteWhat a couple of incredible games yesterady. Hope the Cats follow suit!
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