Vermont season preview 22-23

The regular season is finally here and now that Vermont has a few exhibition games under their belt, it is time to take a look at how this season might shape up. Expectations are high for the Cats this season as they look to continue their incredible run of success. There are more questions surrounding this team than in years past as Vermont will be relying on several newcomers to be significant contributors. With one of their most challenging non-conference slates on deck, this year’s Cats will be tested early and often as they prepare for the all important conference play. Here are a few thoughts before the season opener on Monday. 

Projected record: 20-11 (13-3). 1st in the America East. NCAA tourney berth. 

Projecting wins and losses is always tough but it is a good place to start. The potential of this team is clear. They have an immense pool of talent and a strong group of experienced guards. However, much of the excitement is really a testament to the Vermont program and how good their player development has been. They have a lot of new faces and after watching the exhibition games it is clear that the early part of this season is going to be about patience. This year's non-conference schedule is very tough and this group is being thrown into the fire. I believe that by the time conference play rolls around Vermont will have worked the kinks out because the coaching staff always finds a way to make the pieces fit. Last year they were able to incorporate the new pieces while relying on Ben Shungu and Ryan Davis to carry the team. This year the Cats don't have that luxury and will need contributions from the new players right away. 

Schedule:

This year’s non-conference schedule is a beast for a couple of reasons. The first is how much Vermont will be on the road. After the opener on Monday they have 8 consecutive games on the road. That is quite a challenge out of the gates. The caliber of opponent is another factor in this schedule. All but three of their opponents were picked to finish in the top half of their league, including playing three other preseason conference winners (Merrimack, Iona, Colgate) and two who were picked second (St. Mary’s, Toledo). That is a lot of talented and motivated squads who have championship aspirations. Having a challenging schedule like this has always helped Vermont down the line because they face so many different and challenging game situations early in the year. This has always accelerated their growth as a team and prepares them to win tough games in February and March. I do think that that will still happen this year but probably with a few more losses than in past years. The key will be how will the inexperienced players and the fans for that matter stay patient and believe in the potential of this team. We as fans have a mission this year to play the long game along with the team and not get bogged down in early results. Last year was a good test run for this when the team struggled so much from three in the early part of the non-conference before becoming a perimeter shooting machine as they moved into conference play. 

Defense and rebounding:

The area where inexperience affects Vermont the most is on the defensive side of the ball. Defense and rebounding are the hallmarks of the Vermont program. It is what has made them so consistently competitive over the years. The system they run is dependent on team continuity and each player trusting that everyone is where they need to be. It takes time to get all of the nuances and this year there are going to be several rotational players who currently only have a few months under their belt. During the preseason it was clear that finding the combination of players who can be relied on for stretches when the Cats need to ramp up the defense is going to take time. 

Young stars emerging:

While the veterans will make up the largest part of Vermont's rotations, the Cats will need contributions from their young guys. Each has shown flashes through the preseason but game action is a whole different animal. TJ Hurley has played his way into minutes with not just his shooting ability but with his knack for coming up big when the Cats need a bucket. He plays with a calm beyond his years and could provide the Vermont offense with a jolt off the bench this season, very similar to Aaron Deloney's role last season. Even with the guard depth the Cats have, I would expect Hurley to play his way into big minutes. Finding frontcourt depth is a huge storyline this season and this is where a young player absolutely has to emerge. Between Perry Smith Jr, Ileri Ayo-Faleye, and Jorge Ochoa, the Cats will need at least one of these players to play big minutes. I am sure they will all have an opportunity for minutes but I do think someone distinguishes themselves and takes a larger chunk of minutes. 

Extra year drive:

Robin Duncan, Finn Sullivan, Kam Gibson, and Dylan Penn are all using their extra season for one more shot at the NCAA tourney. It is well known that the driving force behind Penn’s decision to transfer was to go to a school who can make the tournament. Every year there is a player, like Shungu last season, who takes that final year motivation and turns it into a stellar season. Seeing these guys leave it all out on the floor is gonna be fun and will help set the tone for the younger players. Someone in this group is likely to have a career year and put the team on their back. 

Deloney and Fiorillo take the next step:

Throughout the offseason Aaron Deloney has looked nothing short of incredible, shooting at a high percentage from three and making plays off the dribble. He was incredible in bursts last season and looks ready to become an even bigger part of the rotation. His emergence was a huge part of their success in conference last season and if his preseason is any indication the breakout is going to continue. Nick Fiorillo is another player who really emerged last season and is poised to be handed all the minutes he can handle. His versatility at the top of the key either as a screener, passer, or shooter is gonna be a nice piece for the Cats this season. Fiorillo has one of the tougher tasks this season as the coaching staff is asking him to be more of a traditional big man, particularly on the defensive end. That is not a natural fit and his growth into that role will be an interesting storyline throughout the year. 

Becker coaching milestone:

It is crazy to think that Becker will become Vermont’s all time winningest coach sometime this season. When he took the job he was tasked with continuing the success that Vermont had built over the previous decade. He managed to do that and then fly past that expectation and put his own stamp on the program by raising the bar even higher. 

I could go on and on about this season and I think that is because more than in recent seasons, it is hard to tell what kind of team Vermont will be this season. There are so many variables to the Cats success this season and with so many new pieces it is going to be fun seeing how they all fit together. Monday night is going to be a ton of fun and should be a great atmosphere.