NCAA tournament 2022: 13 Vermont vs 4 Arkansas game preview

Vermont reached their goal of getting to the NCAA tournament and now have an opportunity to go out and try to make a run. Looking for that Cinderella team had always been my favorite part of March Madness and that is what makes this first weekend of games the greatest sporting event in the world. This year the Cats are already a popular upset pick and get their shot against Arkansas on Thursday night at 9:20pm. Thought I would dive into the type of game it will take for each team to win. 

For Vermont to pull off the upset

The reason that the Cats are such a popular upset pick is that they have the makeup of a Cinderella. The Cats have an efficient offense, they take care of the ball, play tough defense, and are experienced. Year in and year out these are the traits that many upset minded teams bring to the tournament. Vermont's strengths also are set up to potentailly negate some of the Razorbacks strengths. Arkansas makes up for a poor shooting percentage by forcing turnovers, getting to the offensive glass, and getting to the free throw line. All three of those strengths are things that the Cats are very good at combating. Vermont turns the ball over at the 15th lowest rate in the country, is the #1 defensive rebounding team in the country, and puts their opponents on the line at the 17th lowest rate in the country (stats courtesy of barttorvik.com). If they are able to play to these strengths they will put themselves in a good position to win. The most important part of the gameplan will be to slow down Arkansas and make them play in the halfcourt. Arkansas really struggled to make shots this year with the their 49.2% effective field goal percentage ranking 216th in the country (Vermont's 57.3% effective field goal percentage is 3rd in the country by comparison). Arkansas has been able to succeed despite this deficiency by creating extra possessions. Whether it is through creating turnovers, grabbing offensive rebounds, or getting to the line, the Razorbacks want to get as many possessions as possible to offset their offensive inefficiencies. The Cats have had success this year and in years past in forcing teams to play their slow tempo by using methodical offense and strong defense. By playing at a slower tempo and playing to their strengths they will force Arkansas to make shots and be more efficient on offense. If Vermont comes out and plays their game the way they have all season they will compete for the full 40 minutes and give themselves a chance to advance. That is the recipe for an upset.

(Also having a role player go off for a Mopa-Njila type game wouldn't hurt either)

Where could it go wrong

The simple answer is that Arkansas is the superior team from a superior conference who will use their superior athleticism to dominate the Cats. If the higher seed plays to their potential the likelihood of a upset shrinks significantly. The Razorbacks best against the Cats best will go to Arkansas every time. Every upset involves the higher seed struggling in some capacity. Anyone who has rewatched the Vermont vs Syracuse upset can attest that Syracuse played a very poor game and the Cats were able to capitalize. The first 10 minutes will be crucial for setting the tempo. If the Razorbacks force turnovers and get out in the open court, they could race past Vermont in a heartbeat. The other big concern would be their speed and athleticism creating opportunities to get to the line. The last time Vermont played in the NCAA tourney in 2019 against Florida State, the Seminoles were 31-37 from the line including 24-28 in the second half alone. Vermont cannot let that happen again. Arkansas will look to drive the ball to the rim at every opportunity and crash the offensive glass hard on every possession. They will try to wear the Cats down with relentless pressure at both ends of the court.

The last thing I want to highlight is the mentality that this Vermont team plays with. I have talked all year about the incredible mental toughness, chemistry, leadership, and tenacity that this team plays with. That is what makes this team special and is what I have enjoyed watching the most. To see the joy, passion, and determination of this group has been incredible. That is the type of mentality that can carry a team on the brightest stage. 

There is nothing better than basketball in March. These teams play contrasting styles and watching the push/pull of each team trying to impose their will is going to make for an exciting game. Haven't been this hyped for a tournament game in a long time.