Basketball is officially back and after all of the waiting, obsessing, projecting, and researching, it is time to write about the upcoming season. With this being the last of the extra COVID year eligibility across college basketball, it feels like a peak year for the sport. There is so much veteran experience across the country and after this season teams are going to get much younger. These post COVID years have felt like an era all its own with all of the changes around eligibility, conference realignment, and player compensation. That makes this year so exciting and one to appreciate.
With so many returning pieces, there is a real excitement about what this Vermont team can accomplish this season. Players in the Vermont program very often make significant year to year improvements and now that the coaching staff has a large group of returners, there is an opportunity to to take another step forward. Integrating a large number of new players year to year over the last few seasons has meant there have been less opportunities to look ahead and add new wrinkles as most of the work has been just getting players integrated into the system. This year the Cats have a group who have already put in that work. This team has an opportunity to be very special.
The one caveat to all this excitement is health. Every year teams are always battling the unpredictable nature of player health and this season the Cats have had a run of tough luck to start the season. Becker mentioned in his media day appearance that Shamir Bogues has not practiced very much due a surgery to remove bone spurs and TJ Long has only been available for about 25% of practices thus far dealing with a nagging foot injury. Considering those are the Vermont's two preseason all conference players, that is a cause for concern. It was nice to see Bogues back for the final exhibition but you never know how that missed time will affect teams. I think about When Dylan Penn was injured for the entire preseason during his Catamount season and it look him and the team a while to get going after all that missed time. Last season Nick Fiorillo also had a bit of an adjustment period coming out of his preseason injury. I am approaching this preview with bountiful optimism and as such am going to assume full health. Here. We. Go.
Projected Record: 25-6 (14-2) 1st in America East, NCAA tourney berth
This team has a ridiculous amount of potential. First off, they could be the best defensive team Vermont has ever had. In my preview last season I mentioned how exciting it would be to see Shamir Bogues in the Vermont defensive system and it did not disappoint. The Duke game left a sour taste with the offensive struggles and TJ Long's injury but underneath it all, Vermont's defense was fully validated as a force to be reckoned with. Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye are elite defenders no matter the level of competition. The Cats are going to be able to wear their opponents down in a big way. The first two games against UAB and Auburn will be fun to watch and are a great measuring stick. They are not just two great teams, they also have great individual players. Yaxel Lendeborg for UAB is a the preseason conference player of the year and Johni Broome from Auburn is rated as the best player in the country on evanmiya.com. Two dominant frontcourt players to kick off the season. With the preseason injuries, these games are going to be even more difficult. After that big road trip, the Cats have a chance to go on a pretty big winning streak. The rematch with Yale in early December will be absolute must watch, can't miss college basketball after last season's miracle. That game last season solidified Yale/Vermont as the best rivalry in Northeast mid-major basketball. The conference schedule starts with a bang as Vermont begins with three tough road games and that will set the tone for the rest of the conference season after those early Bryant/Lowell tests.
Depth
During this incredible run of success the most significant advantage that Vermont has had over their opponents is their incredible depth. The Cats have a group of players on the bench that if they were broken off as their own team, they would be a competitive squad. That is a luxury that very few teams have. This was really put on full display last year with the time missed by Bogues, Matt Veretto, and TJ Hurley. The "next man up" mentality in the Vermont program is really incredible. I think back to the 21-22 season opener on the road at Northern Iowa when Vermont was facing opening the season without its star Ryan Davis. Even the most optimistic fan was understandably feeling down about their chances. The Cats went out and blew the doors off Northern Iowa anyway, kicking off an incredible season. Overcoming injuries is always a challenge but Vermont is a program that has a pattern of players stepping up when called upon. This year, the Cats have already seen the results of this with Sean Blake seizing his opportunity while other players have been out.
Leadership
Last year Aaron Deloney returned to be the program ambassador to a group of newcomers. This year the Cats have quite a wealth of experience and leadership. Nick Fiorillo is in his 6th season with Vermont, Jace Roquemore is in his 6th season of college basketball, Shamir Bogues and Ileri Ayo-Faleye are in their 5th. Sam Alamutu, TJ Long, and Gavin Perryman are in their 4th. For a program with the goals and aspirations that Vermont has, there couldn't be a better setup. With so much knowledge, this group is prepared for the inevitable ups and downs of the college basketball season.
Breakouts incoming?
Even with so many returning pieces, the Cats are still looking to replace important production. Losing Aaron Deloney and Matt Veretto leaves a big gap in scoring and perimeter shooting. This puts TJ Hurley square in center of replacing production. He is the most natural candidate to replace this perimeter scoring. Three point shooting was a real slog for the Cats last season and they will need a better season from beyond the arc to reach their full potential. Hurley has the ability to step into that role. Nick Fiorillo is finally fully healthy and looks ready to capitalize. He plays such an important role in the offense with his passing ability. Other players like Bogues and Ayo-Faleye have been working in the offseason to improve their perimeter shooting ability. One could say that Sam Alamutu already broke out last season. If the preseason is any indication, he was only scratching the surface. He has looked transformed moving into a guard role and is poised for another step up this year. At the media day Becker talked about how Seth Joba and Nate Barnett have shown steady improvement and have an opportunity to carve out a role. Both showed flashes in the exhibitions. This opportunity for improvement is the biggest benefit of the programmatic continuity.
Newcomer impact
Even with so many returning minutes there is opportunity to the few newcomers to make an impact. Shy Odom has already established himself as a very good college basketball player and is looking to recapture that magic with Vermont. A 100% healthy Odom is a major impact player. His progress toward reclaiming his pre-injury form will be a huge storyline for Vermont as he is a player who can impact the game in many different ways. Without injury concerns, the rest of the new faces were looking at a tough road to minutes. The door has been opened for Gavin Perryman and Sean Blake to make an impact this season. Sean Blake has been an absolute revelation so far with his dynamic ability to get to the rim. He has forced his way into a role this season. Blake will certainly have some growing pains but he will likely have some explosive performances this season.
Offensive improvement
The Vermont defense can always be counted on and helped the Cats thrive last season despite a very inconsistent offense. Looking at the analytics on www.barttorvik.com, last season was one of the worst offensive seasons by adjusted offensive efficiency in the Becker era. The defense saved the day as it was the one of best seasons by adjusted defensive efficiency in the Becker era (so when Becker says this year might be his best group on the defensive end, he is on to something). Every coach, every preseason talks about offensive tweaks and playing faster. This year is no different for the Cats. For Vermont it has always been hard to increase the number of possessions and play faster because their defensive system dictates a slower paced, lower possession game. I do think after last season's difficulties, the coaching staff will work to install some new wrinkles to unlock the full potential of this group. It will be interesting to see if that translates to a faster pace of play. The Cats have nowhere to go but up as they finished 350th (out of 362) last year in tempo. At the very least the offense will have to be far more efficient on a per possession basis this season.
Exciting Basketball
The last thought for today is how exciting this team will be to watch. Last season was full of insane moments with big shots from Long, huge dunks from Ayo-Faleye, and jaw dropping sequences from Bogues. Toss in what Blake and Alamutu have shown in the preseason and this group has explosive energy and a killer mentality. The level of skill, IQ, and athleticism on this team is going to make for must watch basketball this season. There will likely be wow moments in every game this season. Bogues in particular (hopefully shaking off his nagging injury with his procedure) is poised to explode this season for Vermont.
There is no better sport than college basketball and I cannot wait for the season to officially begin. As always thanks for coming along on the ride with me, reading the blog, sharing thoughts, and enjoying Catamount basketball.